The federal energy tax credits have expired

Costs and payback figures on this page may still assume a federal credit that no longer exists. The 30% Residential Clean Energy Credit (25D) and the Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (25C) both ended for property placed in service after 31 December 2025, and the home EV charger credit (30C) ended after 30 June 2026. Assume no federal credit on work done today.

What expired, and what still exists →

Is Electrification Worth It in Arizona?

120°F summer days. 3°C winter nights. How does a heat pump handle that?

Arizona is actually perfect for heat pumps, but not for the reason most people think. Yes, the cooling load is insane—Phoenix uses more electricity for AC than almost anywhere else in America. But you barely heat at all. Maybe 20-30 days per year. And natural gas costs are rising fast as the state grows.

Get a high-SEER heat pump and solar. That's the play. Your AC runs 6+ months a year, so efficiency matters more here than almost anywhere. A SEER2 18+ heat pump will cut your summer bills by 30-40%. Solar pays for itself in 5-6 years with Arizona's sun hours. This isn't even a close call.

Updated 31 July 2026Data from EIA, DSIRE, NREL
Heat Pump Payback
Not Recommended
With incentives
Annual Savings
$2,403
Full electrification
Available Incentives
$975
State + utility (federal credits expired)
CO₂ Reduction
12.1 tons
Per year

What Do Energy Costs Look Like in Arizona?

Here's the real data from EIA (Energy Information Administration). These are the rates that determine whether electrification makes financial sense.

Electricity Rate
$0.135/kWh
Natural Gas Rate
$1.28/therm
Average Electric Bill
$162/month
Average Gas Bill
$48/month
Climate Zone
hot
Heating Degree Days
1,400
Cooling Degree Days
3,500

Visual ROI Analysis

Payback Period Comparison

Lower is better • Shortest payback = fastest return on investment

Annual Savings Comparison

Higher is better • More annual savings = greater long-term benefit

Cumulative Net Savings Over Time

Point where line crosses $0 = payback achieved • Steeper line = faster savings growth

Which Upgrades Pay Off the Fastest?

The economics are broken down for each major upgrade. Pay attention to the payback period—that's how long until savings equal your net cost.

🌡️

Heat Pump HVAC

Upfront Cost$12,000 - $22,000
Total Incentives-$400
Net Cost$11,600 - $21,600
Annual Savings$-12/yr
Payback PeriodNot Recommended
Lifetime ROI5%
CO₂ Reduction1.8 tons/yr
☀️

Solar Panels

Upfront Cost$15,000 - $30,000
Total Incentives-$0
Net Cost$15,000 - $30,000
Annual Savings$1,094/yr
Payback Period21.6 years
Lifetime ROI142%
CO₂ Reduction3.8 tons/yr
💧

Heat Pump Water Heater

Upfront Cost$2,500 - $4,500
Total Incentives-$250
Net Cost$2,250 - $4,250
Annual Savings$182/yr
Payback Period21.0 years
Lifetime ROI61%
CO₂ Reduction1.8 tons/yr

EV Charger + Electric Vehicle

Upfront Cost$800 - $2,500
Total Incentives-$325
Net Cost$475 - $2,175
Annual Savings$1,140/yr
Payback Period1.2 years
Lifetime ROI1475%
CO₂ Reduction4.8 tons/yr

Should You Go All-In?

Here's what it costs to electrify everything at once—heat pump HVAC, solar panels, heat pump water heater, and EV charger. The upfront cost is high, but so are the savings.

Total Upfront Cost
$30,300 - $59,000
Total Incentives
-$975
Net Cost After Incentives
$29,325 - $58,025
Annual Energy Savings
$2,403/year
Lifetime Savings (18 years)
$43,262
Simple Payback
20.1 years
💡

Best ROI for Arizona

Based on your state's energy costs and climate, EV Charger offers the best return on investment with an average payback of 1.2 years and an ROI of 1475%.

0.0 years slower than average compared to the national average.

Ready to electrify your Arizona home?

Get free quotes from local contractors who specialize in heat pumps, solar, and electrification.

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